Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 12.471538 15.254415 18.354475 22.041401 26.283397 30.987740 36.575042
2025-12-21 7.939098 11.318582 15.521988 21.036641 27.976034 36.311297 46.963180
2025-12-28 6.007075 9.668957 14.625657 21.611656 30.969598 42.828087 58.718560
2026-01-04 4.648579 8.355111 13.762311 21.862240 33.284382 48.390631 69.394891
2026-01-11 3.724959 7.415465 13.176048 22.276783 35.681503 54.047978 80.362355
2026-01-18 3.079600 6.745313 12.831709 22.910822 38.325471 60.087325 92.053961
2026-01-25 2.395744 5.828416 11.918324 22.510118 39.340219 63.820564 100.673489
2026-02-01 1.964536 5.264989 11.479840 22.762129 41.284746 68.911087 111.353850
2026-02-08 1.534884 4.581605 10.702254 22.327913 42.070064 72.276372 119.640466
2026-02-15 1.172869 3.931321 9.861136 21.654432 42.365566 74.855789 126.817168
2026-02-22 1.002068 3.683613 9.759063 22.269470 44.794426 80.781536 139.164227
2026-03-01 0.788087 3.249433 9.192585 21.944119 45.577747 84.135848 147.714246
2026-03-08 0.637471 2.953211 8.906943 22.195458 47.505839 89.612663 160.089938
2026-03-15 0.447397 2.442649 8.029562 21.166283 47.086476 91.292950 166.695212
2026-03-22 0.370498 2.277253 7.943032 21.742772 49.615841 97.932061 181.358743
2026-03-29 0.295723 2.076578 7.721458 21.994454 51.537424 103.616632 194.677014
2026-04-05 0.240227 1.921411 7.585760 22.410947 53.786318 109.937832 209.224531
2026-04-12 0.200196 1.811290 7.551655 23.047958 56.494181 117.149193 225.449223
2026-04-19 0.145836 1.578695 7.099291 22.645377 57.096736 120.684346 235.691737
2026-04-26 0.114770 1.449064 6.930809 22.898570 59.028322 126.635740 250.138562
2026-05-03 0.081114 1.258542 6.509250 22.462317 59.491681 129.947194 260.208977
2026-05-10 0.053892 1.067841 6.023588 21.785658 59.381231 132.182759 268.485555
2026-05-17 0.043826 1.014287 6.026619 22.403598 62.086915 139.710839 286.089097